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Leading online grocery markets 'to grow $227bn by 2023'

The largest global online grocery markets are predicted to experience combined growth of $227 billion, at an annual rate of 20%, by 2023, according to new figures.

Research from the grocery education and charity group IGD, which was unveiled on Sunday at the GroceryShop event in Las Vegas, US, suggested China will grow at a 31% CAGR over the next five years, taking market share from 3.8% to 11.2%.

Over the next five years, the Chinese online grocery market will grow by the same size as the entire combined market of all ten countries in 2018, the IGD’s research said.

IGD also forecasts significant growth in the US with online set to more than double its market share over the next five years, driven by the roll-out of more pick-up points, Instacart’s expansion, and integration of businesses such as Shipt and Home Chef.

Market share is expected to grow to 3.5%, creating an additional $37 billion opportunity for American retailers and manufacturers.

Considering the online growth opportunity in Europe, Jon Wright, head of retail insight for the EMEA region at IGD, commented: “We’re anticipating continued online growth opportunities across mature Western European markets.

“In the UK, France, Germany and Spain we forecast above market average growth rates for online grocery retailing, all growing market share. It provides a significant growth opportunity as retailers and manufacturers in the region invest in personalisation, ease and convenience and combining online and offline to meet a range of shopper needs.”

IGD Asia’s programme director, Shirley Zhu, said: “China, Japan and South Korea are the Asian markets leading the way in online grocery shopping, and we’re seeing significant market share penetration in these three countries.

“They lead the way globally in terms of market share, and in 2023 all three will be nearing double digit share for online grocery, with South Korea over 14%.”

IGD’s North American programme director, Stewart Samuel, said of his region of focus: “The US online grocery market has experienced a rapid pace of growth this year, driven by expanding services and new entrants.

“We’re seeing a major focus on offering same-day delivery with many companies partnering with Instacart to scale up quickly, including Aldi. Target acquired Shipt, enabling it to move its same-day delivery plans forward by about two years.”

He added: “Plated and Home Chef meal kit companies were acquired by Albertsons and Kroger respectively, enabling them to offer a multichannel solution in the category, and we’re also seeing a strong pipeline of innovation including Walmart’s automated picking warehouse, Alphabot, Kroger’s partnership with Ocado and Albertsons’ online organic and natural foods marketplace.”

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